August NPD Predictions

Following up from yesterday's post on the July NPD charts, I've decided to break out the predictions into their own post. This will hopefully allow a bit more predictive analysis here and results-based analysis in the actual charts post moving forward.

Hardware

Up front, I think the Xbox One S having launched at the beginning of August makes it a safe bet to take the hardware lead this month. The drastically discounted (read: units marked down in order to get them off the market) base Xbox Ones managed to outsell the PlayStation 4 in July for the first time since October and the Halo 5 launch. They still fell short of 3DS sales but I imagine Microsoft will top the month overall. Especially as it would increasingly appear that the new slim model of the PlayStation 4 likely won't be officially acknowledged or on sale until the September 7th PlayStation Event.

Software

Just for the heck of it, let's completely predict what the August NPD charts will look like in a month.

  1. Madden NFL 17
  2. No Man's Sky
  3. Deus Ex: Mankind Divided
  4. Overwatch
  5. Grand Theft Auto V
  6. Call of Duty: Black Ops III
  7. LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  8. Monster Hunter: Generations
  9. Minecraft
  10. Destiny: The Taken King

Right off the bat, I'm predicting the three major new releases this month make up the top three. Madden NFL is always a juggernaut when it comes out and i don't think even the incredible levels of hype No Man's Sky garnered before release is enough to over take one of the year's consistent top-ten finishers (#2 last year).

Meanwhile, the new-ness of Deus Ex: Mankind Divided (and No Man's Sky) should be enough to push them up and over the steady players of Overwatch, Grand Theft Auto V, Call of Duty, Minecraft and Destiny.

And lastly, I think the high performing titles from this month of LEGO Star Wars and Monster Hunter will hold out and fend off other potential new titles like Metroid Prime Federation Force. Now that digital sales are included, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Telltale's Batman could squeak on to the list but I just don't think it has the legs. Minecraft: Story Mode managed it last year but it wasn't competing against digital heavy hitters like Destiny or Overwatch.

Those are my thoughts on the August charts. We'll see how I fare in about a month.