July 2016 NPD Sales

Another month, another set of NPD Sales. And with this being the second month to include limited digital sales, the new trends are starting to show (i.e. hot damn Grand Theft Auto V sells a lot of copies for a three-year-old game). And, as such, in this bold new world I haven't quite got the hang of readjusting my predictions.

But before we look at the games, there were some big shakeups on the hardware sales front. Even before the August 2nd launch of the Xbox One S, the drastically reduced price standard Xbox One finally managed to overtake the PlayStation 4 in console sales. But even above that, the Nintendo 3DS topped both, perhaps bolstered from interest in Pokemon GO, but more likely Monster Hunter Generations helped drive sales.

So my prediction that PlayStation 4 would lead the hardware sales from January through October has finally been eliminated from the running. Xbox topping PlayStation - even if they didn't take the top spot overall - is the first time since October 2015 that PlayStation has fallen from the top spot. And with the Xbox One S launching earlier this month, Microsoft will likely keep the sales going this month as well.

Now for the game predictions I made last month (that are certainly wrong).

  • Song of the Deep and I am Setsuna seem like the only two new releases high-profile enough in July to breakthrough (and fortunately with digital now included they conceivably could). However, I think the price point of Song of the Deep is to low to crack the top ten and I think the classic JRPG niche market on PS4 isn't big enough either. Then again, Bravely Default almost made the top ten in April so what the hell: I predict I am Setsuna will chart (probably in the bottom half of the list) but Song of the Deep will not. (And Inside is hurt by being a low price point Xbox/PC-exclusive so it won't make the cut either).
  • Oh, upon further review of the list of July releases, I was just reminded of Monster Hunter Generations, which will probably perform just fine thanks to that franchise's name and the lack of major competition.
  • In this new digital world, with very little else of note launching, OverwatchGTA VCoD, and Minecraft will continue their seemingly never-ending domination. And let's say Destiny hangs out alongside them I guess.
  • I don't think Mirror's Edge will have any kind of staying power. And Uncharted sales have probably slowed to the point that they'll drop out now.
  • I guess I'll predict LEGO Star Wars sticks it out another month with Star Wars Celebration keeping people eager to grab up any Star Wars content they can.
  • And let's go with my "Doom hangs on but just barely" prediction again.

July 2016

  1. Grand Theft Auto V - was #6 in Dec, #2 in Jan, #3 in Feb, #4 in Mar, #5 in Apr, #5 in May, #2 in Jun
  2. Overwatch (does not include PC Battle.net sales) - #3 in May, #1 in Jun
  3. LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens - #3 in Jun
  4. Monster Hunter: Generations (does not include digital sales) - released July 15
  5. Call of Duty: Black Ops III - was #1 in Nov, #1 in Dec, #1 in Jan, #2 in Feb, #9 in Mar, #8 in Apr, #8 in May, #8 in Jun
  6. Minecraft (does not include digital sales) - was #8 in Dec, #6 in Jan, #8 in Feb, # 10 in Mar, #6 in Apr, #6 in May, #10 in Jun
  7. NBA 2K16 - was #1 in Sept, #2 in Oct, #5 in Nov, #7 in Dec, #3 in Jan, #5 in Feb, #8 in Mar, #9 in Apr, #7 in May, #7 in Jun
  8. Doom (does not include digital sales) - #2 in May, #4 in Jun
  9. Destiny: The Taken King - #9 in Jun
  10. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - #7 in Dec, #7 in Jan

With a quiet July, the list stayed pretty consistent to June. Mirror's Edge and Uncharted fell off the list, being replaced by newcomer Monster Hunter: Generations and Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - last seen on the charts in Jan.

  • As predicted, GTAOverwatch, CoDMinecraft, and Destiny continue their dominance in this new digital era. Pretty amazing that GTA can still top the charts three years into its run. (5/5)
  • LEGO Star Wars held on for another month (higher than I even expected). (6/6)
  • Monster Hunter: Generations debuted on the list. (7/7)
  • I was off on my prediction of I am Setsuna making the list but I accurately called Mirror's Edge and Uncharted falling off the chart (9/10)
  • And Doom stuck around (again without even factoring in digital sales). (10/11)

So what do you know? Based on the actual predictions I made, I came in with a near perfect run. Booyah!

As for predictions for the August NPD charts...I'm gonna make those on another day because I've already written a lot here, and I'm in need of dinner.